Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 2613 at 19:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 14–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 2613 SAN 19:00 → SEA 22:03 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AS 608 SAN 07:20 → SEA 10:20 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2613 Delta Flight history →	SAN 19:00	SEA 22:03	11%	3%	0.8%	85%
DL 2508 Delta Flight history →	SAN 11:06	SEA 14:15	11%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 2533 Delta Flight history →	SAN 13:36	SEA 16:32	13%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 2572 Delta Flight history →	SAN 16:11	SEA 19:05	13%	3%	0.7%	87%
DL 2530 Delta Flight history →	SAN 07:03	SEA 10:05	14%	2%	0.7%	91%
AS 709 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 06:31	SEA 09:11	22%	2%	0.8%	89%worse than usual
AS 1368 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 11:46	SEA 14:33	22%	3%	0.9%	85%
WN 247 Southwest	SAN 07:04	SEA 10:09	22%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 685 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 15:06	SEA 17:46	23%	3%	0.8%	82%
WN 4310 Southwest	SAN 20:11	SEA 23:02	24%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 1373 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 17:06	SEA 19:44	25%	5%	0.9%	93%worse than usual
AS 574 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 16:06	SEA 18:38	25%	4%	0.8%	79%
AS 609 Alaska	SAN 09:47	SEA 12:29	27%	4%	0.8%	no record
AS 608 Alaska	SAN 07:20	SEA 10:20	30%	3%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON