Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 24 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2830 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 2830 SAN 06:16 → SFO 07:57 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 3463 SAN 08:04 → SFO 09:52 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2830 United Flight history →	SAN 06:16	SFO 07:57	4%	1%	0.6%	89%
WN 1726 Southwest	SAN 06:24	SFO 08:08	5%	1%	0.9%	no record
UA 1302 United Flight history →	SAN 18:27	SFO 20:07	14%	6%	0.6%	62%
WN 2492 Southwest	SAN 08:26	SFO 10:02	14%	4%	1.0%	no record
UA 1791 United	SAN 09:41	SFO 11:24	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2117 United Flight history →	SAN 16:09	SFO 17:49	15%	6%	0.6%	76%
UA 1835 United	SAN 12:35	SFO 14:14	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 3100 SkyWest	SAN 17:45	SFO 19:27	15%	6%	0.9%	no record
WN 1660 Southwest	SAN 13:03	SFO 14:34	15%	4%	1.0%	no record
AS 291 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 21:27	SFO 23:08	15%	4%	1.3%	42%
UA 2309 United Flight history →	SAN 11:01	SFO 12:47	16%	5%	0.6%	68%
UA 2278 United Flight history →	SAN 19:40	SFO 21:42	19%	6%	0.6%	37%
WN 3454 Southwest	SAN 17:51	SFO 19:25	19%	6%	1.0%	no record
AS 1399 Alaska	SAN 14:46	SFO 16:20	19%	7%	1.3%	no record
OO 3211 SkyWest	SAN 13:15	SFO 14:55	19%	6%	0.9%	no record
AS 3305 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 08:59	SFO 10:45	19%	5%	1.2%	31%
F9 3381 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 10:25	SFO 12:15	20%	8%	3.2%	66%
UA 1763 United Flight history →	SAN 13:39	SFO 15:19	20%	6%	0.6%	74%
WN 1349 Southwest	SAN 20:02	SFO 21:34	20%	5%	0.9%	no record
AS 1450 Alaska	SAN 15:35	SFO 17:09	20%	6%	1.3%	no record
AS 3347 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 11:04	SFO 12:51	21%	6%	0.9%	64%
WN 3497 Southwest	SAN 15:35	SFO 17:08	22%	7%	0.9%	no record
AS 3463 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 08:04	SFO 09:52	23%	6%	1.0%	63%
AS 2314 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 16:14	SFO 17:49	72%	10%	3.8%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON