Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 1143 at 06:27 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 1143 SAN 06:27 → SJC 07:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1449 SAN 21:39 → SJC 22:41 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 1143 Southwest	SAN 06:27	SJC 07:59	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1580 Southwest	SAN 08:13	SJC 09:42	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2066 Southwest	SAN 09:25	SJC 10:55	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3462 Southwest	SAN 14:55	SJC 16:24	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1667 Southwest	SAN 11:26	SJC 13:00	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4468 Southwest	SAN 12:59	SJC 14:29	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1790 Southwest	SAN 16:12	SJC 17:45	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 818 Southwest	SAN 18:07	SJC 19:36	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 4137 Southwest	SAN 20:24	SJC 21:52	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 864 SkyWest	SAN 07:55	SJC 09:33	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 298 Southwest	SAN 19:20	SJC 20:50	19%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 3036 SkyWest	SAN 09:49	SJC 11:20	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 1449 Alaska	SAN 21:39	SJC 22:41	19%	4%	0.8%	no record
AS 2091 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 09:55	SJC 11:24	49%	12%	1.9%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON