Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 1117 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 1117 SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 1810 SAN 16:16 → SLC 19:09 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1117 Delta Flight history →	SAN 06:15	SLC 09:21	5%	3%	0.7%	96%
WN 3928 Southwest	SAN 07:34	SLC 10:32	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1177 Delta Flight history →	SAN 09:46	SLC 12:50	10%	5%	0.7%	93%
DL 1252 Delta Flight history →	SAN 19:04	SLC 22:08	10%	5%	0.7%	90%
DL 1210 Delta Flight history →	SAN 17:01	SLC 19:59	11%	5%	0.7%	82%
DL 1296 Delta Flight history →	SAN 13:15	SLC 16:18	13%	3%	0.7%	87%
OO 3058 SkyWest	SAN 09:00	SLC 12:08	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 3488 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 15:54	SLC 19:02	16%	6%	0.6%	81%
WN 1810 Southwest	SAN 16:16	SLC 19:09	22%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON