Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3465 at 07:04 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 3465 SAN 07:04 → SMF 08:53 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 659 SAN 19:38 → SMF 21:16 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3465 Southwest	SAN 07:04	SMF 08:53	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4565 Southwest	SAN 07:52	SMF 09:31	9%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4539 Southwest	SAN 10:04	SMF 11:47	12%	2%	0.7%	no record
OO 3209 SkyWest	SAN 08:25	SMF 10:01	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 1366 Alaska	SAN 21:48	SMF 23:28	13%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 1728 Southwest	SAN 12:15	SMF 13:53	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1887 Southwest	SAN 15:11	SMF 16:51	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 3439 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 11:00	SMF 12:53	19%	5%	0.7%	74%
WN 2560 Southwest	SAN 17:45	SMF 19:24	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 3469 Southwest	SAN 13:18	SMF 15:00	19%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 4472 Southwest	SAN 15:37	SMF 17:15	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 4473 Southwest	SAN 18:21	SMF 19:53	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 659 Southwest	SAN 19:38	SMF 21:16	22%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 2100 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 07:44	SMF 09:36	18%	9%	2.2%	82%
AS 2334 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 16:56	SMF 18:38	43%	12%	0.0%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON