Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 10–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 3302 SAN 22:17 → STS 23:51 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest WN 2622 SAN 19:57 → STS 21:42 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3302 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 22:17	STS 23:51	10%	3%	1.6%	80%
AS 3445 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 08:07	STS 09:53	11%	4%	1.3%	84%
QX 2330 Horizon	SAN 08:01	STS 09:51	11%	3%	2.1%	no record
OO 3045 SkyWest	SAN 12:25	STS 14:17	14%	5%	1.3%	no record
WN 2622 Southwest	SAN 19:57	STS 21:42	17%	5%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON