Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Tampa on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 1721 Alaska	SAN 08:37	TPA 16:16	22%	4%	1.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210	3h 51m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:50 → TPA 06:01 +1DL 2077	10h 00m	100%	89%
United Details →	SAN 16:09 → SFO 17:49UA 2117	3h 28m San Francisco	SFO 21:17 → TPA 05:59 +1UA 1702	10h 50m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121	2h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → TPA 00:15 +1DL 2385	9h 27m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	SAN 07:29 → JFK 16:19DL 367	3h 36m New York	JFK 19:55 → TPA 23:20DL 1636	12h 51m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → TPA 16:58DL 759	7h 43m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	SAN 19:58 → LAX 21:13DL 4087 · flown by SkyWest	1h 21m Los Angeles	LAX 22:34 → TPA 06:16 +1DL 910	7h 18m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:28DL 1179	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 17:22 → TPA 18:57DL 1594	7h 57m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest	2h 36m Los Angeles	LAX 10:11 → TPA 18:05DL 749	8h 50m	100%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON