tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2406 Southwest SAN 09:07 TUS 10:24 8% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1808 Southwest SAN 18:04 TUS 19:24 17% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177 2h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 15:00 → TUS 16:06DL 3717 · flown by SkyWest 6h 20m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:54 → LAX 12:11DL 3716 · flown by SkyWest 1h 59m Los Angeles LAX 14:10 → TUS 15:50DL 3776 · flown by SkyWest 4h 56m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:58 → IAH 17:25UA 2237 2h 48m Houston IAH 20:13 → TUS 20:56UA 1976 8h 58m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476 3h 18m Denver DEN 15:35 → TUS 16:48UA 2049 8h 03m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35AA 2535 2h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:00 → TUS 14:36AA 2537 8h 16m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → SAN 16:06 → PHX 17:36AA 1951 1h 59m Phoenix PHX 19:35 → TUS 20:42AA 6457 · flown by SkyWest 4h 36m 89% 78%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:16 → SFO 07:57UA 2830 2h 20m San Francisco SFO 10:17 → TUS 12:23UA 5433 · flown by SkyWest 6h 07m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565 3h 04m Denver DEN 19:10 → TUS 20:12UA 1762 7h 39m 98% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON