Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 2–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3477 SAT 06:48 → BNA 09:11 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3479 SAT 15:24 → BNA 17:42 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3477 Southwest	SAT 06:48	BNA 09:11	2%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 778 Southwest	SAT 07:02	BNA 09:17	3%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 3644 Southwest	SAT 10:48	BNA 13:08	5%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 3479 Southwest	SAT 15:24	BNA 17:42	9%	3%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON