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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Boston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 816 Delta Flight history → SAT 16:36 BOS 21:59 20% 6% 0.6% 60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862 7h 27m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 13:58 → BOS 16:44DL 726 9h 04m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342 2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:50 → BOS 13:37AA 1206 7h 36m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:35 → ATL 18:11DL 1408 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 20:50 → BOS 23:36DL 300 8h 01m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAT 11:29 → DTW 15:35DL 788 2h 23m Detroit DTW 17:58 → BOS 20:00DL 1707 7h 31m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717 3h 51m Minneapolis MSP 12:50 → BOS 16:50DL 2558 9h 45m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → SAT 06:01 → CLT 10:00AA 1119 2h 23m Charlotte CLT 12:23 → BOS 14:59AA 3314 7h 58m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAT 07:40 → ATL 11:06DL 998 1h 17m Atlanta ATL 12:23 → BOS 14:45DL 1293 6h 05m 97% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAT 16:18 → IAH 17:25UA 404 46m Houston IAH 18:11 → BOS 23:16UA 2296 5h 58m 70% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON