Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 5–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1119 SAT 06:01 → CLT 10:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1804 SAT 12:01 → CLT 15:58 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1119 American Flight history →	SAT 06:01	CLT 10:00	5%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 3297 American Flight history →	SAT 08:00	CLT 11:57	6%	3%	0.6%	87%
AA 1804 American	SAT 12:01	CLT 15:58	9%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON