Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 2–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1895 SAT 06:38 → DAL 07:58 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4478 SAT 18:25 → DAL 19:34 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1895 Southwest	SAT 06:38	DAL 07:58	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2275 Southwest	SAT 09:18	DAL 10:29	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4470 Southwest	SAT 11:24	DAL 12:35	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1353 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 13:25	DAL 14:36	8%	2%	0.6%	92%
WN 2595 Southwest	SAT 15:10	DAL 16:23	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 210 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 17:14	DAL 18:25	8%	3%	0.6%	75%
WN 4478 Southwest	SAT 18:25	DAL 19:34	9%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON