tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1718 American Flight history → SAT 06:08 DCA 10:33 8% 3% 1.2% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 13:20 → BOS 18:47DL 816 3h 01m Boston BOS 21:48 → DCA 23:44DL 5704 · flown by Republic 9h 24m 96% 89%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717 1h 26m Minneapolis MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983 6h 43m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → SAT 06:40 → ORD 09:38UA 1332 3h 07m Chicago ORD 12:45 → DCA 15:52UA 752 8h 12m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 11:12 → DCA 12:57DL 1961 6h 37m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528 3h 14m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961 8h 30m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592 2h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820 9h 05m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342 2h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:49 → DCA 13:04AA 1151 7h 03m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → SAT 09:48 → IAH 11:18UA 753 3h 02m Houston IAH 14:20 → DCA 18:31UA 625 7h 43m 100% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SAT 17:14 → DAL 18:25WN 210 47m Dallas DAL 19:12 → DCA 23:07WN 1267 4h 53m 69% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON