Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 3–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4646 SAT 06:54 → DEN 08:12 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2479 SAT 16:35 → DEN 18:08 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4646 Southwest	SAT 06:54	DEN 08:12	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
OO 5397 SkyWest	SAT 05:29	DEN 07:09	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3487 Southwest	SAT 12:08	DEN 13:21	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2853 United Flight history →	SAT 08:53	DEN 10:11	7%	2%	0.5%	86%
WN 966 Southwest	SAT 18:09	DEN 19:28	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
F9 2355 Frontier Flight history →	SAT 20:12	DEN 21:47	8%	3%	0.7%	87%
UA 1007 United Flight history →	SAT 13:39	DEN 14:55	9%	2%	0.5%	84%
UA 2479 United Flight history →	SAT 16:35	DEN 18:08	11%	3%	0.5%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON