tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3489 Southwest SAT 07:52 ELP 08:29 3% 1% 0.4% no record
WN 3490 Southwest SAT 19:44 ELP 20:20 9% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h behind San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SAT 13:25 → DAL 14:36WN 1353 2h 32m Dallas DAL 17:08 → ELP 17:54WN 1100 5h 29m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → ELP 13:20DL 1002 7h 40m 99% 89%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 17:14 → DAL 18:25WN 210 2h 06m Dallas DAL 20:31 → ELP 21:19WN 1279 5h 05m 96% 86%
AmericanDetails → SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342 2h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:48 → ELP 09:40AA 1365 5h 39m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SAT 08:53 → DEN 10:11UA 2853 1h 25m Denver DEN 11:36 → ELP 13:32UA 2128 5h 39m 96% 85%
AmericanDetails → SAT 07:00 → DFW 08:20AA 3098 3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:31 → ELP 12:24AA 1658 6h 24m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → SAT 10:40 → DFW 12:04AA 2759 2h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:41 → ELP 15:36AA 1681 5h 56m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:43 → IAH 08:50UA 410 1h 59m Houston IAH 10:49 → ELP 11:51UA 6309 · flown by Mesa 5h 08m 96% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON