tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Detroit, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2233 United Flight history → SAT 06:27 EWR 11:22 5% 2% 0.6% 93%
UA 1261 United Flight history → SAT 13:35 EWR 18:30 16% 6% 0.6% 56%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528 2h 59m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846 8h 30m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:15 → DTW 09:20DL 2497 55m Detroit DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577 5h 41m 95% 88%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 1h 19m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 6h 01m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592 2h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033 9h 19m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 13:09 → EWR 15:24DL 2322 7h 44m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → SAT 10:07 → IAH 11:14UA 753 2h 32m Houston IAH 13:46 → EWR 18:30UA 1397 7h 23m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → SAT 13:54 → ORD 16:48UA 2243 3h 19m Chicago ORD 20:07 → EWR 23:39UA 759 8h 45m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → SAT 06:40 → ORD 09:38UA 1332 2h 33m Chicago ORD 12:11 → EWR 15:39UA 606 7h 59m 99% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON