tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 10:38, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 471 United Flight history → SAT 07:00 IAD 11:27 3% 2% 0.6% 95%
UA 2250 United Flight history → SAT 12:01 IAD 16:28 6% 3% 0.6% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 7h 41m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528 2h 34m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest 7h 54m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342 3h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:16 → IAD 14:31AA 524 8h 30m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SAT 07:40 → ATL 11:06DL 998 3h 53m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 8h 06m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → SAT 06:40 → ORD 09:38UA 1332 3h 28m Chicago ORD 13:06 → IAD 16:14UA 1128 8h 34m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAT 10:38 → ATL 14:05DL 1676 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 18:05 → IAD 19:54DL 1309 8h 16m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:43 → IAH 08:50UA 410 3h 23m Houston IAH 12:13 → IAD 16:30UA 2366 7h 47m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → SAT 10:07 → IAH 11:14UA 753 3h 39m Houston IAH 14:53 → IAD 19:16UA 1178 8h 09m 100% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON