Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 753 SAT 10:07 → IAH 11:14 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest UA 404 SAT 16:18 → IAH 17:25 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 753 United Flight history →	SAT 10:07	IAH 11:14	7%	3%	0.6%	70%
UA 410 United Flight history →	SAT 07:43	IAH 08:50	7%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 1282 United Flight history →	SAT 11:29	IAH 12:39	7%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 275 United	SAT 17:50	IAH 19:01	12%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 404 United Flight history →	SAT 16:18	IAH 17:25	15%	4%	0.6%	78%
UA 6278 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	SAT 11:43	IAH 12:55	9%	4%	1.4%	91%
UA 6281 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	SAT 14:15	IAH 15:27	20%	8%	0.0%	80%
UA 6130 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	SAT 19:20	IAH 20:33	21%	7%	0.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON