Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching New York on time.

Nonstops that day


DL 1166 Delta Flight history →	SAT 12:37	JFK 17:55	9%	3%	0.6%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → JFK 16:29DL 1575	8h 49m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	SAT 10:38 → ATL 14:05DL 1676	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 16:55 → JFK 19:48DL 2378	8h 10m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717	3h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	9h 55m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380	7h 00m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	SAT 17:00 → ATL 20:40DL 2009	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 22:34 → JFK 00:46 +1DL 1632	6h 46m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:15 → DTW 09:20DL 2497	54m Detroit	DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751	5h 43m	93%	87%
Delta Details →	SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528	2h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 20:04 → JFK 23:39DL 2692	8h 13m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SAT 12:39 → SLC 14:30DL 930	2h 40m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → JFK 23:47DL 697	10h 08m	99%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON