Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 3494 at 06:08 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 3494 SAT 06:08 → LAS 06:57 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3417 SAT 01:51 → LAS 02:42 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3494 Southwest	SAT 06:08	LAS 06:57	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3495 Southwest	SAT 11:51	LAS 12:40	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4746 Southwest	SAT 17:53	LAS 18:56	8%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 1412 Southwest	SAT 13:41	LAS 14:32	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
F9 3419 Frontier Flight history →	SAT 15:09	LAS 16:21	13%	7%	0.7%	71%
F9 3417 Frontier Flight history →	SAT 01:51	LAS 02:42	15%	7%	0.8%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON