Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4951 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–13%.

Safest bet that day AA 4951 SAT 07:00 → LAX 08:20 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 3084 SAT 14:39 → LAX 15:49 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4951 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAT 07:00	LAX 08:20	5%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 2534 Delta Flight history →	SAT 07:19	LAX 08:20	6%	3%	0.5%	92%
AA 6497 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAT 16:34	LAX 17:56	7%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 1471 Delta	SAT 16:36	LAX 17:45	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 1795 Delta	SAT 16:47	LAX 17:56	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3475 Southwest	SAT 17:05	LAX 18:16	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3084 Southwest	SAT 14:39	LAX 15:49	15%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON