Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 555 at 07:53, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 555 Southwest	SAT 07:53	MCO 11:49	5%	1%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAT 05:15 → DTW 09:20DL 2497	3h 07m Detroit	DTW 12:27 → MCO 15:06DL 1123	8h 51m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 12:51 → MCO 14:22DL 1576	6h 42m	99%	87%
United Details →	SAT 06:40 → ORD 09:38UA 1332	1h 22m Chicago	ORD 11:00 → MCO 15:03UA 2008	7h 23m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 11:25 → MCO 13:00DL 1030	6h 40m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SAT 07:40 → ATL 11:06DL 998	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 12:59 → MCO 14:34DL 1372	5h 54m	98%	87%
United Details →	SAT 07:00 → IAD 11:27UA 471	1h 08m Dulles	IAD 12:35 → MCO 14:58UA 2206	6h 58m	97%	87%
American Details →	SAT 06:01 → CLT 10:00AA 1119	2h 18m Charlotte	CLT 12:18 → MCO 13:59AA 2117	6h 58m	98%	85%
American Details →	SAT 07:00 → DFW 08:20AA 3098	2h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:00 → MCO 14:43AA 2151	6h 43m	98%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON