tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching New Orleans on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 6h 17m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592 1h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 09:25 → MSY 13:47DL 2100 7h 17m 97% 91%
UnitedDetails → SAT 10:07 → IAH 11:13UA 753 3h 44m Houston IAH 14:57 → MSY 16:27UA 2738 6h 20m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → SAT 07:40 → ATL 11:06DL 998 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157 6h 37m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:43 → IAH 08:50UA 410 3h 05m Houston IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385 5h 31m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → SAT 17:00 → ATL 20:40DL 2009 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 22:56 → MSY 23:31DL 2224 6h 31m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 13:25 → DAL 14:36WN 1353 3h 49m Dallas DAL 18:25 → MSY 19:53WN 1335 6h 28m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → SAT 06:01 → CLT 10:00AA 1119 1h 26m Charlotte CLT 11:26 → MSY 12:23AA 2030 6h 22m 97% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON