Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 632 SAT 06:24 → ORD 09:29 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 2801 SAT 17:24 → ORD 20:23 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 632 American Flight history →	SAT 06:24	ORD 09:29	5%	3%	0.6%	87%
UA 1332 United Flight history →	SAT 06:40	ORD 09:38	6%	2%	0.6%	87%
AA 4176 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SAT 18:57	ORD 22:07	10%	5%	0.7%	76%
AA 2845 American	SAT 14:46	ORD 17:49	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 2243 United Flight history →	SAT 13:54	ORD 16:47	11%	4%	0.6%	78%
UA 2801 United	SAT 17:24	ORD 20:23	14%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON