tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:40, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1233 American SAT 07:03 PHL 11:59 5% 3% 0.6% no record
AA 711 American SAT 07:05 PHL 11:59 5% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717 2h 10m Minneapolis MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43DL 2679 7h 38m 98% 94%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279 7h 04m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528 3h 09m Minneapolis MSP 20:25 → PHL 23:56DL 2703 8h 30m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → PHL 15:02DL 2131 7h 22m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → SAT 11:29 → DTW 15:35DL 788 2h 05m Detroit DTW 17:40 → PHL 19:25DL 1686 6h 56m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342 2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:28 → PHL 12:52AA 2255 6h 51m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → SAT 17:00 → ATL 20:40DL 2009 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642 6h 59m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SAT 07:40 → ATL 11:06DL 998 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692 7h 24m 99% 90%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON