Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 3–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3505 SAT 09:07 → PHX 09:57 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2375 SAT 15:35 → PHX 16:13 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3505 Southwest	SAT 09:07	PHX 09:57	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 813 Southwest	SAT 13:08	PHX 13:37	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 3507 Southwest	SAT 18:46	PHX 19:16	8%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 2053 American Flight history →	SAT 08:58	PHX 09:28	8%	3%	0.6%	84%
AA 2375 American Flight history →	SAT 15:35	PHX 16:13	11%	5%	0.6%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON