tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: WN 4143 at 05:52 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4143 Southwest SAT 05:52 SAN 07:02 3% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 4485 Southwest SAT 18:38 SAN 19:41 14% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717 2h 39m Minneapolis MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125 9h 19m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592 2h 49m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 7h 38m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 1h 43m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 8h 28m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 1h 18m Atlanta ATL 10:04 → SAN 11:43DL 843 8h 23m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528 1h 34m Minneapolis MSP 18:50 → SAN 20:35DL 2145 8h 09m 96% 85%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 13:25 → DAL 14:36WN 1353 3h 55m Dallas DAL 18:31 → SAN 19:48WN 1356 8h 23m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAT 07:19 → LAX 08:20DL 2534 1h 47m Los Angeles LAX 10:07 → SAN 11:13DL 3716 · flown by SkyWest 5h 54m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAT 12:39 → SLC 14:30DL 930 2h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → SAN 18:06DL 1252 7h 27m 99% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAT 14:15 → IAH 15:27UA 6281 · flown by Mesa 49m Houston IAH 16:16 → SAN 17:46UA 2798 5h 31m 68% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON