Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 18–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 9463 SAT 18:37 → SEA 21:03 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 494 SAT 16:44 → SEA 19:10 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 9463 Alaska	SAT 18:37	SEA 21:03	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 9411 Alaska	SAT 19:37	SEA 21:05	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 494 Alaska Flight history →	SAT 16:44	SEA 19:10	21%	5%	0.6%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON