Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1430 Southwest	SAT 07:08	STL 09:23	3%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 3509 Southwest	SAT 15:32	STL 17:45	8%	2%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAT 05:15 → DTW 09:20DL 2497	3h 08m Detroit	DTW 12:28 → STL 13:05DL 1371	7h 50m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592	1h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33DL 2455	7h 03m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566	6h 57m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SAT 07:40 → ATL 11:06DL 998	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 15:03 → STL 15:52DL 543	8h 12m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	SAT 11:29 → DTW 15:35DL 788	1h 10m Detroit	DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822	5h 55m	96%	88%
American Details →	SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342	1h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:34 → STL 09:34AA 3333	4h 33m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SAT 17:00 → ATL 20:40DL 2009	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403	6h 53m	99%	87%
American Details →	SAT 10:40 → DFW 12:04AA 2759	2h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:51 → STL 16:41AA 3944 · flown by Envoy	6h 01m	99%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON