tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 21%, against 11% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2765 at 13:35, 20%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2765 Southwest SAT 13:35 TPA 17:19 20% 9% 1.2% no record
WN 1415 Southwest SAT 15:05 TPA 18:36 22% 10% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528 2h 59m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → TPA 00:15 +1DL 2385 8h 49m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717 1h 09m Minneapolis MSP 10:08 → TPA 14:20DL 2301 7h 15m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587 5h 09m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525 6h 33m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SAT 07:40 → ATL 11:06DL 998 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 14:09 → TPA 15:51DL 1720 7h 11m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → SAT 06:40 → ORD 09:38UA 1332 1h 41m Chicago ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834 7h 32m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAT 17:00 → ATL 20:40DL 2009 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560 6h 29m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAT 12:37 → JFK 17:55DL 1166 2h 00m New York JFK 19:55 → TPA 23:20DL 1636 9h 43m 97% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON