Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 4–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3098 SAV 05:39 → ATL 06:45 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 3014 SAV 17:05 → ATL 18:19 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3098 Delta Flight history →	SAV 05:39	ATL 06:45	4%	2%	0.9%	94%
DL 1702 Delta Flight history →	SAV 06:43	ATL 07:53	5%	2%	0.9%	92%
DL 3054 Delta Flight history →	SAV 12:39	ATL 13:56	6%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 3011 Delta Flight history →	SAV 10:03	ATL 11:09	6%	2%	0.8%	90%
DL 686 Delta Flight history →	SAV 08:09	ATL 09:17	8%	2%	0.9%	87%
DL 3112 Delta Flight history →	SAV 19:07	ATL 20:34	8%	3%	0.7%	80%
DL 1067 Delta Flight history →	SAV 15:43	ATL 16:54	9%	3%	0.7%	81%
DL 3014 Delta Flight history →	SAV 17:05	ATL 18:19	11%	3%	0.7%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON