Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3734 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 3734 SAV 06:50 → BNA 07:29 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3512 SAV 18:37 → BNA 18:56 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3734 Southwest	SAV 06:50	BNA 07:29	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3511 Southwest	SAV 06:44	BNA 07:16	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 692 Southwest	SAV 10:55	BNA 11:34	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3512 Southwest	SAV 18:37	BNA 18:56	18%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON