Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 5049 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 5049 SAV 07:00 → CLT 08:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2372 SAV 17:26 → CLT 18:49 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5049 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SAV 07:00	CLT 08:25	6%	3%	0.7%	95%
OH 5277 PSA	SAV 09:26	CLT 10:46	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 5534 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SAV 10:06	CLT 11:23	7%	3%	0.7%	93%
AA 5676 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SAV 08:47	CLT 10:14	8%	3%	0.7%	88%
OH 5677 PSA	SAV 14:12	CLT 15:28	10%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1453 American	SAV 12:59	CLT 14:15	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
OH 5553 PSA	SAV 16:20	CLT 17:38	12%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 2372 American	SAV 17:26	CLT 18:49	18%	5%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON