Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2435 SAV 07:01 → DFW 08:50 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2048 SAV 15:06 → DFW 16:42 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2435 American Flight history →	SAV 07:01	DFW 08:50	9%	4%	0.7%	91%
MQ 3680 Envoy	SAV 13:03	DFW 14:51	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 3058 American	SAV 12:59	DFW 14:41	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2048 American Flight history →	SAV 15:06	DFW 16:42	19%	5%	0.8%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON