Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5032 SAV 07:18 → JFK 09:22 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 5460 SAV 17:49 → JFK 20:05 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5032 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	SAV 07:18	JFK 09:22	5%	3%	0.9%	91%
DL 5207 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	SAV 11:10	JFK 13:13	8%	3%	0.8%	84%
DL 5460 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	SAV 17:49	JFK 20:05	11%	5%	0.9%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON