Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 3228 at 05:58, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 3228 American	SAV 05:58	MIA 07:41	7%	5%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAV 05:39 → ATL 06:45DL 3098	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 18m	99%	90%
American Details →	SAV 07:00 → CLT 08:25AA 5049 · flown by PSA	2h 37m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	6h 11m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	SAV 06:43 → ATL 07:53DL 1702	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 09:31 → MIA 11:33DL 2836	4h 50m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	SAV 08:09 → ATL 09:17DL 686	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	4h 53m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	SAV 10:03 → ATL 11:09DL 3011	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 13:32 → MIA 15:26DL 1323	5h 23m	99%	85%
United Details →	SAV 06:15 → EWR 08:27UA 2828	3h 04m Newark	EWR 11:31 → MIA 14:38UA 2295	8h 23m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	SAV 06:00 → LGA 08:10DL 5457 · flown by Endeavor	3h 05m New York	LGA 11:15 → MIA 14:24DL 1538	8h 24m	97%	83%
American Details →	SAV 07:45 → PHL 09:50AA 5570 · flown by PSA	1h 33m Philadelphia	PHL 11:23 → MIA 14:24AA 1989	6h 39m	94%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON