tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3517 Southwest SBA 05:43 LAS 07:07 2% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 4491 Southwest SBA 13:44 LAS 15:01 11% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SBA 16:03 → SFO 17:29UA 5256 · flown by SkyWest 3h 46m San Francisco SFO 21:15 → LAS 23:10UA 406 7h 07m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25UA 2340 1h 16m San Francisco SFO 08:41 → LAS 10:31UA 1627 4h 16m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → SBA 05:00 → DEN 08:27UA 2865 2h 55m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 7h 24m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → SBA 06:00 → LAX 07:03UA 4649 · flown by SkyWest 3h 32m Los Angeles LAX 10:35 → LAS 12:04UA 1047 6h 04m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SBA 05:50 → SLC 08:50DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest 2h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → LAS 12:01DL 1659 6h 11m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305 2h 29m San Francisco SFO 17:37 → LAS 19:27UA 751 5h 29m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → SBA 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 1790 2h 49m Denver DEN 19:05 → LAS 20:08UA 655 7h 20m 98% 84%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 07:34 → PDX 09:45AS 2178 · flown by Horizon 1h 00m Portland PDX 10:45 → LAS 13:11AS 757 5h 37m 92% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SBA 14:39 → PDX 16:49AS 2318 · flown by Horizon 1h 01m Portland PDX 17:50 → LAS 20:12AS 531 5h 33m 70% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON