tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AS 618 at 20:13, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 618 Alaska SBA 20:13 SEA 22:46 17% 5% 0.7% no record
AS 2143 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SBA 10:51 SEA 13:26 18% 0% 1.9% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SBA 16:03 → SFO 17:29UA 5256 · flown by SkyWest 3h 16m San Francisco SFO 20:45 → SEA 23:10UA 1007 7h 07m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → SBA 05:50 → SLC 08:50DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest 2h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 6h 59m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → SBA 12:40 → SLC 15:41DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 1h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871 5h 53m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → SBA 05:00 → DEN 08:27UA 2865 1h 11m Denver DEN 09:38 → SEA 11:25UA 1253 6h 25m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25UA 2340 3h 27m San Francisco SFO 10:52 → SEA 13:04UA 500 6h 49m 100% 73%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 13:42 → SAN 14:47AS 2176 · flown by Horizon 2h 19m San Diego SAN 17:06 → SEA 19:44AS 1373 6h 02m 98% 72%
UnitedDetails → SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305 1h 19m San Francisco SFO 16:27 → SEA 18:47UA 2279 4h 49m 85% 71%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 07:34 → PDX 09:45AS 2178 · flown by Horizon 2h 23m Portland PDX 12:08 → SEA 13:02AS 1536 5h 28m 97% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON