Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 4–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2407 SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 1610 SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2407 Delta Flight history →	SDF 06:00	ATL 07:24	4%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 1374 Delta Flight history →	SDF 11:17	ATL 12:45	5%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 3092 Delta	SDF 09:49	ATL 11:24	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2117 Delta	SDF 09:56	ATL 11:29	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3195 Delta Flight history →	SDF 16:47	ATL 18:25	6%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 2299 Delta Flight history →	SDF 08:10	ATL 09:40	7%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 1481 Delta Flight history →	SDF 13:02	ATL 14:33	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 1126 Delta Flight history →	SDF 18:54	ATL 20:34	7%	3%	0.5%	82%
DL 1610 Delta Flight history →	SDF 07:05	ATL 08:35	8%	2%	0.6%	92%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON