tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4296 Southwest SDF 07:03 BNA 07:11 2% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 1704 Southwest SDF 15:56 BNA 15:54 6% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Louisville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 6h 30m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:50 → DTW 09:16DL 5824 · flown by Republic 3h 09m Detroit DTW 12:25 → BNA 13:03DL 1557 6h 13m 99% 92%
AmericanDetails → SDF 08:18 → ORD 09:03AA 4413 · flown by Republic 2h 10m Chicago ORD 11:13 → BNA 12:56AA 2362 5h 38m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → SDF 07:15 → ORD 07:56UA 3422 · flown by Republic 2h 41m Chicago ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414 6h 14m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SDF 11:17 → ATL 12:45DL 1374 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142 5h 09m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 09:57 → BNA 10:09DL 1155 4h 04m 96% 89%
DeltaDetails → SDF 17:10 → MSP 18:21DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest 1h 59m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → BNA 22:26DL 1144 6h 16m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → SDF 18:54 → ATL 20:34DL 1126 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121 5h 21m 98% 88%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SDF 17:55 → MSP 19:05DL 5017 · flown by Endeavor 1h 15m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → BNA 22:26DL 1144 5h 31m 67% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON