tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4685 Republic SDF 20:15 BOS 23:03 6% 3% 0.6% no record
DL 5615 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → SDF 12:49 BOS 15:25 9% 3% 0.6% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855 6h 45m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862 6h 42m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → SDF 06:00 → DCA 07:50AA 4549 · flown by Republic 2h 07m Washington DCA 09:57 → BOS 11:48AA 4505 · flown by Republic 5h 48m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → SDF 06:30 → EWR 08:38UA 3594 · flown by Republic 3h 21m Newark EWR 11:59 → BOS 13:16UA 1669 6h 46m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → LGA 08:12DL 5652 · flown by Republic 1h 48m New York LGA 10:00 → BOS 11:23DL 5728 · flown by Republic 5h 23m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → SDF 07:15 → ORD 07:56UA 3422 · flown by Republic 1h 33m Chicago ORD 09:29 → BOS 13:07UA 1367 5h 52m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → SDF 08:10 → ATL 09:40DL 2299 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 12:22 → BOS 14:46DL 1293 6h 36m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SDF 16:47 → ATL 18:25DL 3195 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 20:50 → BOS 23:36DL 300 6h 49m 99% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON