tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–5% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3519 Southwest SDF 05:18 BWI 07:03 2% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 3563 Southwest SDF 16:58 BWI 18:41 5% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → BWI 10:47DL 801 4h 47m 98% 93%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711 5h 56m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → SDF 07:15 → ORD 07:56UA 3422 · flown by Republic 2h 55m Chicago ORD 10:51 → BWI 13:57UA 2653 6h 42m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:50 → DTW 09:16DL 5824 · flown by Republic 59m Detroit DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546 3h 57m 95% 90%
DeltaDetails → SDF 11:17 → ATL 12:45DL 1374 1h 17m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799 4h 36m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → SDF 13:02 → ATL 14:33DL 1481 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → BWI 18:41DL 2928 5h 39m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SDF 10:15 → ORD 10:56UA 3520 · flown by Republic 3h 33m Chicago ORD 14:29 → BWI 17:32UA 2737 7h 17m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → SDF 05:58 → MIA 08:39AA 2073 1h 48m Miami MIA 10:27 → BWI 13:17AA 1010 7h 19m 97% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SDF 17:26 → DTW 18:58DL 4947 · flown by Endeavor 1h 00m Detroit DTW 19:58 → BWI 21:39DL 2715 4h 13m 65% 58%
DeltaDetails → SDF 12:40 → MSP 13:48DL 4988 · flown by Endeavor 53m Minneapolis MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565 5h 35m 54% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON