Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4549 SDF 06:00 → DCA 07:50 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest OH 560 SDF 17:35 → DCA 19:21 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4549 American flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 06:00	DCA 07:50	6%	2%	0.5%	91%
YX 4802 Republic	SDF 11:06	DCA 13:00	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 9752 American	SDF 07:49	DCA 09:29	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 5602 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SDF 17:48	DCA 19:47	14%	5%	0.9%	77%
OH 560 PSA	SDF 17:35	DCA 19:21	15%	5%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON