Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 3508 at 09:52, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 3508 United flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 09:52	IAD 11:44	5%	1%	0.5%	88%
UA 4067 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	SDF 13:48	IAD 15:32	14%	6%	1.2%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → IAD 11:37DL 1444	5h 37m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	SDF 08:10 → ATL 09:40DL 2299	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135	5h 51m	99%	91%
United Details →	SDF 07:15 → ORD 07:56UA 3422 · flown by Republic	2h 53m Chicago	ORD 10:49 → IAD 13:46UA 1486	6h 31m	99%	90%
United Details →	SDF 06:30 → EWR 08:38UA 3594 · flown by Republic	1h 14m Newark	EWR 09:52 → IAD 11:10UA 1618	4h 40m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	SDF 17:10 → MSP 18:21DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest	1h 29m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest	6h 10m	96%	89%
United Details →	SDF 10:15 → ORD 10:56UA 3520 · flown by Republic	2h 10m Chicago	ORD 13:06 → IAD 16:14UA 1128	5h 59m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	SDF 11:17 → ATL 12:45DL 1374	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695	5h 29m	99%	88%
American Details →	SDF 12:38 → CLT 14:15AA 5145 · flown by PSA	1h 51m Charlotte	CLT 16:06 → IAD 17:44AA 5447 · flown by PSA	5h 06m	100%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON