Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3497 Southwest	SDF 06:27	LAS 07:15	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3229 Southwest	SDF 08:13	LAS 09:22	5%	1%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Louisville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SDF 17:10 → MSP 18:21DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest	3h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 21:47 → LAS 23:10DL 1442	9h 00m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	8h 00m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	SDF 07:50 → DTW 09:16DL 5824 · flown by Republic	2h 59m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → LAS 13:28DL 421	8h 38m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	SDF 11:17 → ATL 12:45DL 1374	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → LAS 17:08DL 659	8h 51m	100%	90%
United Details →	SDF 06:30 → EWR 08:38UA 3594 · flown by Republic	3h 47m Newark	EWR 12:25 → LAS 14:53UA 1864	11h 23m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	SDF 08:10 → ATL 09:40DL 2299	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 13:15 → LAS 14:18DL 549	9h 08m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466	7h 57m	98%	89%
United Details →	SDF 06:15 → IAH 07:42UA 6266 · flown by Mesa	3h 13m Houston	IAH 10:55 → LAS 12:14UA 1799	8h 59m	98%	89%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SDF 17:26 → DTW 18:58DL 4947 · flown by Endeavor	59m Detroit	DTW 19:57 → LAS 21:13DL 916	6h 47m	64%	57%
Delta Details →	SDF 14:19 → DTW 15:46DL 5160 · flown by Endeavor	49m Detroit	DTW 16:35 → LAS 17:51DL 766	6h 32m	62%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON