tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:57 pm at Louisville); 1 already left
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 17:50, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Miami on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SDF 17:50 → ATL 19:26DL 1126 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 7h 05m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → SDF 15:30 → IAH 17:08UA 6310 · flown by Mesa 1h 36m Houston IAH 18:44 → MIA 22:39UA 1829 7h 09m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → SDF 13:51 → ATL 15:27DL 1481 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 19:19 → MIA 21:15DL 1588 7h 24m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → SDF 14:42 → LGA 16:56DL 5637 · flown by Republic 2h 59m New York LGA 19:55 → MIA 23:22DL 2382 8h 40m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → SDF 15:18 → ATL 16:54DL 3195 51m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → MIA 19:41DL 1328 4h 23m 93% 73%
AmericanDetails → SDF 13:02 → CLT 14:35AA 5145 · flown by PSA 2h 18m Charlotte CLT 16:53 → MIA 19:02AA 400 6h 00m 100% 71%
AmericanDetails → SDF 17:50 → DCA 19:48AA 5602 · flown by PSA 1h 03m Washington DCA 20:51 → MIA 23:45AA 667 5h 55m 89% 70%
AmericanDetails → SDF 13:18 → DFW 14:40AA 3791 · flown by Envoy 2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:00 → MIA 20:54AA 3308 7h 36m 100% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON