Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 9–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 3923 SDF 18:42 → MSP 19:52 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest 9E 4965 SDF 19:59 → MSP 21:08 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 3923 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SDF 18:42	MSP 19:52	9%	4%	0.2%	80%
DL 4007 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SDF 17:13	MSP 18:24	10%	4%	0.2%	77%
DL 3978 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SDF 12:43	MSP 13:54	10%	4%	0.2%	76%
9E 4972 Endeavor	SDF 12:29	MSP 13:32	11%	3%	0.2%	no record
9E 4965 Endeavor	SDF 19:59	MSP 21:08	12%	4%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON