Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 3507 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–17%.

Safest bet that day YX 3507 SDF 05:15 → ORD 06:05 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4940 SDF 18:29 → ORD 19:08 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3507 Republic	SDF 05:15	ORD 06:05	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 3520 United flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 10:15	ORD 10:57	6%	2%	0.6%	100%
UA 3422 United flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 07:15	ORD 07:56	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
MQ 3580 Envoy	SDF 14:46	ORD 15:16	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3582 Envoy	SDF 10:27	ORD 10:51	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
YX 3477 Republic	SDF 08:57	ORD 09:44	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4413 American flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 08:18	ORD 09:04	9%	3%	0.6%	93%
OO 5834 SkyWest	SDF 13:44	ORD 14:11	15%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 4940 SkyWest	SDF 18:29	ORD 19:08	17%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 4563 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	SDF 19:55	ORD 20:40	23%	5%	6.4%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON