Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 4750 American flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 07:37	PHL 09:38	5%	2%	0.5%	92%
YX 4375 Republic	SDF 16:51	PHL 18:57	6%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270	4h 57m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	6h 19m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	SDF 17:10 → MSP 18:21DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest	2h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 20:25 → PHL 23:56DL 2703	6h 46m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	SDF 08:10 → ATL 09:40DL 2299	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 13:00 → PHL 15:02DL 2131	6h 52m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	SDF 12:49 → BOS 15:25DL 5615 · flown by Republic	1h 55m Boston	BOS 17:20 → PHL 19:15DL 5714 · flown by Republic	6h 26m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	SDF 18:54 → ATL 20:34DL 1126	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	6h 05m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	SDF 07:50 → DTW 09:16DL 5824 · flown by Republic	54m Detroit	DTW 10:10 → PHL 11:46DL 2331	3h 56m	94%	89%
United Details →	SDF 07:15 → ORD 07:56UA 3422 · flown by Republic	3h 37m Chicago	ORD 11:33 → PHL 14:47UA 2182	7h 32m	99%	89%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SDF 15:41 → IAH 17:10UA 6310 · flown by Mesa	55m Houston	IAH 18:05 → PHL 22:29UA 1663	6h 48m	75%	64%
Delta Details →	SDF 17:55 → MSP 19:05DL 5017 · flown by Endeavor	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 20:25 → PHL 23:56DL 2703	6h 01m	67%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON