tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 3903 at 12:13, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3903 Southwest SDF 12:13 PHX 12:42 11% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Louisville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:50 → DTW 09:16DL 5824 · flown by Republic 3h 31m Detroit DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813 9h 00m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → SDF 14:19 → DTW 15:46DL 5160 · flown by Endeavor 2h 40m Detroit DTW 18:26 → PHX 19:47DL 1135 8h 28m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 11:04 → PHX 11:58DL 687 8h 58m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → SDF 07:37 → PHL 09:38AA 4750 · flown by Republic 3h 45m Philadelphia PHL 13:23 → PHX 15:35AA 765 10h 58m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 7h 58m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → SDF 12:38 → CLT 14:15AA 5145 · flown by PSA 1h 27m Charlotte CLT 15:42 → PHX 16:56AA 3046 7h 18m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → SDF 08:10 → ATL 09:40DL 2299 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366 9h 08m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:49 → MSP 08:00DL 4928 · flown by Endeavor 3h 32m Minneapolis MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274 8h 57m 96% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SDF 12:40 → MSP 13:48DL 4988 · flown by Endeavor 1h 06m Minneapolis MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284 6h 29m 61% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON